Next Stop… Louisville!

Ok, I’m about to do something I don’t normally do – share a goal/prediction. It’s easy to say “I’m doing this race” or “I just want to finish that race,” but I’m talking about the numbers – time, speed, pace, etc.

You see, while I majored in math, have a career in statistics and generally LOVE numbers, all that disappears when it comes to my training and competing. I tend to take the numbers too seriously and find that it’s better if I just strive to have a good time. However, I’m going to give way to my left brain here for just a minute.

My experience in Raleigh last week far exceeded my expectations. Here’s the prediction sheet that I jotted down at work the week before the race:

Predictions

So, optimally I was predicting finishing in 6:38 and acknowledging that I could take as long as 7:35 (or potentially longer if things went really bad). I actually finished in 6:19:23 (swim: 39:37, t1: 3:14, bike: 3:00:52, t2: 4:08, run: 2:31:52). As you know from the marathon, I tend to set pretty low goals for this sort of thing. I just hate the idea that I could finish a race this long and then be disappointed over 3 minutes. But regardless…

As you can see, I also doubled those times (not factoring in fatigue, changing clothes, or bathroom breaks) just to get an idea at what I could be looking at in Louisville. So for the record my actual Raleigh time doubled is 12:38:46 (which would be pretty freakin’ incredible… also, that’s not gonna happen). Why not? Well, like I said, I didn’t take into account any of the challenges of doubling an already very long distance. But here’s my best guess at an optimal race in Louisville:

Swim – 1:20
T1 – 0:10
Bike – 7:00
T2 – 0:10
Run – 5:20
Total – 14:00

And I’d be ecstatic with that. I’ll be ecstatic no matter what when I finish, whenever I finish.

So how did I come up with this?

  • First, I simply doubled my swim time. I don’t expect much fatigue in this leg, especially with nearly ¾ of it being with the current, having a time trial (less crowded) start and having the buoys on my left (my breathing side).
  • I gave myself 10 minutes for each transition in which I’ll be completely changing clothes. And if anyone can change outfits quickly, it’s me!
  • I gave myself an added hour of fatigue on the bike compared to what I did in Raleigh. Elevation wise, the Louisville course will be very similar, but who knows if I can even come close to duplicating that performance. This should also give some time to stop at the bathrooms.
  • Finally, I added about 20 minutes of fatigue to my run (nearly 1 minute per mile). Provided my foot doesn’t act up again, this should be plenty!

It all seems pretty logical to me, so now it’s back to training!

Donate Now!
To my Ironman Louisville Race for a Cause to benefit the
Virginia Tech Center for Peace Studies and Violence Prevention
to honor the 32 Hokies who lost their lives on April 16, 2007.
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